Terrascope 2028

About Us

Current State

Supply Chain Current State

Mining Current State

Recycling Current State

Energy Storage Current State

New Lithium Supply Chain

Domestic Supply Chain

Mining: Technological Solutions

Recycling: Technological Solutions

Reducing Lithium Demand

Overview: Reducing Demand

Alternative Energy Storage Methods

Benefits of Public Transportation

Implementation

Mining Policy

Public Transportation Policy

Recycling: Short term Policy

Recycling: Long term Policy

Energy Storage Policy

Social Impact

Terrascope 2028: Sustainably Balancing Lithium Supply and Demand

Figure 1: The once-abandoned mining town of Silver Peak, Nevada in operation again when Foote Mineral Company began extracting lithium from brine below the floor of Clayton Valley in 1966.1

Problem Statement

The transition to a carbon-neutral economy heavily depends on the availability of lithium. Lithium is found in abundance in the western U.S., but mining has substantial local impacts, including on Indigenous communities. How can the gap between expected supply and demand of this necessary element be bridged? Our task was to develop a plan to simultaneously reduce demand and increase production of lithium while avoiding the environmental, social, and economic harm that current production methods cause.

Our Proposal Summary
Why Lithium Matters

Proposal Summary

In order to best avoid harmful impact on local communities while meeting lithium demand for renewable energy, the following is proposed. 

In both the short and long term, there are a number of criteria that must be required in order for a mining, refining, manufacturing, recycling, or energy storage project to receive government approval and funding. These criteria can be found on the Social Impact page.

In the short term, we will focus on incentivizing sustainable mining practices and subsidizing immediately feasible alternative energy storage methods. We also include initial investment into public infrastructure to reduce personal EV demand, though this investment will likely not reach completion in the short term. 

In the long term, we expand our focus to also include increased lithium recycling, investment into public transport, and increasing funding for R&D for a greater variety of energy storage alternatives. 

We find that Direct Lithium Extraction (DLE) is the mining practice with the least environmental and social impact on local communities. Given the current difference between the cost of DLE production and non-DLE production on average, we propose a subsidy of 5 cents per kilogram of lithium mined using DLE methods, as described on the Mining Policy page.

We also find that iron-air batteries are the current most promising alternative for lithium batteries in the area of grid-scale energy storage due to their ability to store large amounts of energy for a fairly low cost. For mobile storage, sodium-based batteries have significantly less impact on surrounding communities and are a viable option for low- to mid-range electric vehicles. A breakdown of these technologies can be found on the Alternative Energy Storage Methods page. We propose directing a portion of funding for battery investments in the U.S. towards iron-air batteries for grid-scale energy storage and sodium batteries for mobile (EV) storage, as explained on the Energy Storage Policy page.

Investment into public transport has the ability to potentially reduce the demand for lithium in the long term by 1 billion kg total, as explained on the Public Transportation page. Investing into and electrifying public transit reduces dependence on car-based infrastructure, allowing for reduced dependence on personal EVs while still meeting renewable energy goals. In the short term, we propose an $8 billion investment dedicated to battery electric buses (BEBs). The reasoning for investment into BEBs can also be found on the Public Transportation page.

Increased lithium recycling reduces demand for additional extraction of lithium. We find 21 billion kg of lithium would need to be in circulation in order to achieve all energy demands, which requires mining through 2045. In order to then meet US demand for lithium through recycling, we propose the installation of 70 recycling plants over the next 35 years. The rationale for this estimate and important considerations when planning the locations of these plants are laid out on the Long-Term Recycling Implementation page. We further propose that these plants utilize promising new technologies, BRAWS and MADES, which are both more efficient and emit fewer toxic compounds than current recycling practices.

In the long term, we propose an investment of 2-3 billion USD annually in order to build out rail and bus infrastructure as well as ensure their accessibility We also propose pilot projects into microtransit to help reduce car dependence in suburban and rural areas. More details can be found on the Public Transportation Policy page.

In order to cultivate new, emerging technologies with the potential to reduce lithium demand, we propose allocating $3 billion to long-term development of alternative energy storage methods that show initial promise, as described on the Energy Storage Policy page. This includes but is not limited to hydrogen fuel cells, geothermal grid storage and non-lithium solid-state mobile batteries, which are explained on the Alternative Energy Storage Methods page.

Problem Overview

The ongoing rise in global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, mainly CO2, has caused average global surface temperature to warm by 1.1 degrees C in the past 150 years.2 This has caused large-scale, pressing negative impacts, including increased frequency and severity of droughts, heatwaves, and tropical cyclones, which have exposed millions of people to acute food insecurity.3 Because of these devastating impacts, drastic steps are needed to reduce GHG emissions worldwide.

Over 60% of GHG emissions are produced by burning fossil fuels for energy.4 As a result, fossil fuels must be replaced by large amounts of alternative clean energy sources that do not produce GHGs. One of the most common alternatives, used in electric vehicles (EVs), smartphones, and other advanced energy storage systems5, is lithium-ion batteries. 

Information on Lithium

Lithium, possessing the highest energy density among all elements on the periodic table6, has become the preferred material for energy storage applications.

Properties of Lithium
A Bohr model of a lithium atom.
Figure 3: A Bohr model of a lithium atom.7
  • Atomic Number: 38
  • Atomic Weight: 6.94 amu (atomic mass units)9
  • Density (g/cm3): 0.534. Lithium is the lightest metal, which is one reason its energy density is so high.10
  • Energy Density (watt-hours per kilogram): 400.11 In comparison, lead-acid batteries are 75 Wh/kg.12
    • Lithium’s energy density is trending upwards as more forms of Li-batteries are tested.13
  • Lithium’s small amount of protons and close-to-empty second orbital shell allow it to conduct electricity efficiently, because the outermost electron can move from atom to atom freely.14

Our Goal

Assuming the world undergoes a massive energy transition from fossil fuels to clean sources, the projected future demand for lithium is massive. As we explain below, projected lithium supply does not keep up.

This year’s Terrascope cohort focused on ensuring sufficient lithium supply for clean energy adoption while reducing reliance on it (details in “About Us“). By simultaneously increasing sustainable production and lowering demand of lithium, a clean energy transition not completely relying on the element can be achieved.

Figure 2: The Kalgoorlie open-pit lithium mine, in Australia.15

Figure 3: An electric tram in Milan. Public transportation, rather than each person owning a personal electric vehicle (EVs), is one way to reduce lithium demand.16

One of the main reasons for tackling the problem is that the lithium available to us is rather scarce.

Demand for lithium will nearly double in quantity compared to the supply available to consumers worldwide in 2030, according to Figure 5.

Use of the Graphs

The graphics are an overview of the global supply and demand for lithium, but the data can be projected for the US as well, given the US’s increased dependence on EVs and personal devices such as smartphones that require lithium.

Explaining the Two IEA Graphs

The graphs provided by the International Energy Agency (IEA) focus on the projected demand for lithium (middle) and the supply of lithium (bottom) in two scenarios: the Announced Pledges Scenario (APS) and the Net Zero Emissions (NZE) scenario. The APS scenario assumes that national governments will fully meet all climate-related commitments they have announced. The NZE scenario is more ambitious: it assumes that the world reaches net zero carbon dioxide emissions by 2050.17

In both scenarios, lithium demand is expected to drastically outpace lithium supply.

Circling Back…

Importing lithium is often expensive, variable in quality, opaque about its socioeconomic impact, and creates additional emissions through its supply chain. We want to understand how we can use primarily domestic sources of lithium, avoid the negative impacts of lithium extraction, and still meet the demands of the renewable transition.

Figure 5: Forecasted worldwide lithium demand in 2030, compared to 2022.18

Figure 6: Projected worldwide lithium demand between 2010 and 2050, in two scenarios.19

Figure 7: Comparison of projected worldwide lithium supply to projected worldwide lithium demand in two scenarios.20

References

Sources Cited in This Page
  1. NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory. (2014, August 5). Lithium Mining, Nevada. Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer. https://asterweb.jpl.nasa.gov/gallery-detail.asp?name=lithium ↩︎
  2. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (2023). Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_SYR_LongerReport.pdf. ↩︎
  3. Ibid. ↩︎
  4. Ibid. ↩︎
  5. EPA. (2024, March 20). Used Lithium-Ion Batteries. https://www.epa.gov/recycle/used-lithium-ion-batteries ↩︎
  6. Slide Show. (2021). Beloit.edu. https://chemistry.beloit.edu/edetc/SlideShow/slides/energy/density.html ↩︎
  7. [Bohr_Model_of_Lithium.jpg] (n.d.). In Wikimedia Commons. Retrieved November 25, 2024, from https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Bohr_Model_of_Lithium.jpg. CC 1.0. ↩︎
  8. Royal Society of Chemistry. (2011). Lithium – Element information, properties and uses | Periodic Table. Rsc.org; Royal Society of Chemistry. https://www.rsc.org/periodic-table/element/3/lithium ↩︎
  9. Ibid. ↩︎
  10. Ibid. ↩︎
  11. Leong, K. W., Wang, Y., & Leung, D. Y. C. (2023). Rechargeable Zn-Air Battery: Current challenges and opportunities. Small, 20(4), (308–320) ↩︎
  12. Clean Energy Institute at University of Washington. (n.d.). Lithium-Ion Battery. https://www.cei.washington.edu/research/energy-storage/lithium-ion-battery/ ↩︎
  13. Li, J., Du, Z., Ruther, R.E. et al. (2017). Toward Low-Cost, High-Energy Density, and High-Power Density Lithium-Ion Batteries. JOM, 69, (1484–1496). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11837-017-2404-9 ↩︎
  14. Vitz, E., Moore, J., Shorb, J., et al. (n.d.). Metallic Bonding. Chemistry LibreTexts. https://chem.libretexts.org/Bookshelves/General_Chemistry/ChemPRIME_(Moore_et_al.)/22%3A_Metals/22.02%3A_Metallic_Bonding ↩︎
  15. [Kalgoorlie_open_cast_mine.jpg]. (n.d.). In Wikimedia Commons. Retrieved November 25, 2024, from https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Kalgoorlie_open_cast_mine.jpg. CC BY 2.5. ↩︎
  16. [Tram_in_Milan.jpg] (n.d.). In Wikimedia Commons. Retrieved November 25, 2024, from https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Tram_in_Milan.jpg. CC BY 3.0 Germany. ↩︎
  17. IEA. (2024). Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2024. https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/ee01701d-1d5c-4ba8-9df6-abeeac9de99a/GlobalCriticalMineralsOutlook2024.pdf ↩︎
  18. Global lithium supply & demand 2022-2030. (n.d.). Statista. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1421980/global-lithium-supply-and-demand/ ↩︎
  19. Ibid. ↩︎
  20. IEA. (2024). Lithium, IEA, Paris https://www.iea.org/reports/lithium, License: CC BY 4.0 source ↩︎